Blog 3.6
1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll?
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
It is between 29.8% and 20.2%.
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
If Senator Sanders was actually at 20.2%, and if former Vice President Biden was ahead 4.8%, Biden would have 22.8% support and beat Sanders.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
According to the article, “ the state seemed to be torn between Biden and Sanders”.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
The state switched from holding primaries to caucuses, and was pushed much earlier on the primary calendar as part of an effort to make the primary system more inclusive of the Democratic Party’s demographic make-up.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
FiveThirtyEight state’s that it is harder to talk to people due to their odd hours of working.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
Since the Nevada Caucuses are new, pollsters have not had time to come up with a calculated and correct way of polling those in Nevada.8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
To ensure that everyone that wants to vote is able to vote, Nevada holds a primary for those that can not Caucus(disabled people, those who have to work, etc..).
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
Due to its heavy reliance on the tourism and casino industries, Nevada is said to have a fluctuating population. Also, a reasonable amount of voters do not have local phone numbers.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
“Since pollsters must have staff to do field work over a 24-hour period rather than in evenings like in other states, as well as the costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models, means polling in Nevada is substantially more expensive to produce than in other states”, according to the article.
People associated with the AARP in Nevada were polled.
It is between 29.8% and 20.2%.
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
If Senator Sanders was actually at 20.2%, and if former Vice President Biden was ahead 4.8%, Biden would have 22.8% support and beat Sanders.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
According to the article, “ the state seemed to be torn between Biden and Sanders”.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
The state switched from holding primaries to caucuses, and was pushed much earlier on the primary calendar as part of an effort to make the primary system more inclusive of the Democratic Party’s demographic make-up.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
FiveThirtyEight state’s that it is harder to talk to people due to their odd hours of working.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
Since the Nevada Caucuses are new, pollsters have not had time to come up with a calculated and correct way of polling those in Nevada.8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
To ensure that everyone that wants to vote is able to vote, Nevada holds a primary for those that can not Caucus(disabled people, those who have to work, etc..).
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
Due to its heavy reliance on the tourism and casino industries, Nevada is said to have a fluctuating population. Also, a reasonable amount of voters do not have local phone numbers.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
“Since pollsters must have staff to do field work over a 24-hour period rather than in evenings like in other states, as well as the costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models, means polling in Nevada is substantially more expensive to produce than in other states”, according to the article.
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